Survivre aux grands flux de capitaux

Malgré de récentes turbulences financières sur les marchés, la dynamique de fond de l’économie mondiale reste essentiellement inchangée. La grande question n’est pas de gérer une baisse, mais plutôt comment maintenir le boom mondial actuel et les flux de capitaux qui l’accompagnent. Avec la croissance mondiale rapide que l’on attend, il ne sera possible de financer les excellentes opportunités d’investissements qui se présenteront que si les capitaux continuent d’entrer dans des pays capables de les utiliser de façon productive.

La bonne nouvelle est que certains pays détiennent d’importantes économies qu’ils désirent investir dans d’autres pays, et qu’ils ne se laissent pas décourager par des fluctuations de marché à court terme. En fait, nos projections montrent que les flux de capitaux bruts (ou totaux) vers les marchés émergents vont augmenter, passant de 400-500 milliards de $US juste avant la crise asiatique de 1997 à 800-900 milliards en 2007 et 2008. Ces flux devraient atteindre 1 trillion de dollars dans un avenir proche.

En analysant les phénomènes du passé, il est clair qu’en 1997-98, la faiblesse des régulations bancaires et des gouvernances d’entreprises a aggravé la profondeur de la contraction économique qui a suivi “l’arrêt soudain” des flux de capitaux. Mais quelles conséquences sur la manière dont les pays à revenus bas et moyens devraient désormais régler leurs politiques de comptes de capitaux dans le débordement actuel ?

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