在巨大的资本洪流下生存

尽管面临最近金融市场的动荡,世界经济的能动本质并没有改变。现在的问题不在于怎样应对衰退,而是怎样维持今天全球经济的繁荣以及与之伴随的资本流动。鉴于世界经济预期将持续快速增长,我们将面临极佳的投资机遇,但是这只有在资本能够继续流入能够富有成效地使用它的国家的情况才能实现。

好消息是有些国家拥有庞大的储蓄,它们想把这些储蓄投进其他国家,并且不为市场短期摇摆所动摇。事实上,我们的推测显示,流入新兴市场的总资本额将从1997年亚洲金融危机前的4000-5000亿美元上升到2007年和2008年的8000-9000亿美元。这些资本流入预期将在不远的将来达到1万亿美元的高峰。

从事后来看,1997-1998年间薄弱的银行监管和公司治理加剧了经济紧缩的程度,随后带来了资本流入的“突然停滞”。但是这对今天的中低收入国家面对资本的洪流应该制订怎样的资本账户政策到底有什么启示呢?

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