Un point rapide sur l’économie mondiale

ISTANBUL – Le mois dernier, j'ai voyagé à Sofia, Kuala Lumpur, Dubaï, Londres, Milan, Francfort, Berlin, Paris, Pékin, Tokyo, Istanbul et à travers les États-Unis. En conséquence, la myriade de défis auxquels l'économie mondiale est confrontée n'étaient jamais bien loin.

En Europe, le risque d’un événement extrême comme un éclatement de la zone euro ou une perte de l'accès au marché pour l'Espagne et l'Italie a été réduit par la décision de la Banque centrale européenne, l'été dernier, de fournir un filet de sécurité pour les dettes souveraines. Mais les problèmes fondamentaux de l'union monétaire – le faible potentiel de croissance, la récession en cours, la perte de compétitivité et les stocks élevés de dette privée et publique – n'ont pas été résolus.

En outre, le grand marchandage entre le centre de la zone euro, la BCE et la périphérie – austérité et réformes difficiles en échange d'un large soutien financier – est maintenant en panne, car la fatigue envers l’austérité dans la périphérie zone euro se heurte à la fatigue envers les plans de sauvetage dans les pays du centre comme l'Allemagne et les Pays-Bas.

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