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运行不畅的全球经济

伊斯坦布尔—过去四周以来,我分别去了索菲亚、吉隆坡、伦敦、米兰、法兰克福、柏林、巴黎、北京、东京、伊斯坦布尔,还穿越了美国。结果,全球经济所面临的诸多挑战从未离我们远去。

在欧洲,欧元区解体的尾部风险以及西班牙和意大利进入市场能力的下降因欧洲央行去年夏天的决定——为主权债务兜底而减弱了。但货币联盟的根本问题——潜在增长率低迷、持续的衰退、竞争力缺失以及公私债务存量巨大——并没有得到解决。

此外,欧元区核心国、欧洲央行和外围国之间的扯皮——用痛苦的紧缩和改革交换大规模金融支持——正在走向失败,欧元区外围国的紧缩疲劳正和德国和荷兰等核心国的援助疲劳针锋相对。

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