夏日蓝调

佛罗伦萨—夏天是去海滩度假放松的季节,历史上,也是各种毁灭性危机爆发的季节。一次又一次,历史一再证明,休假中的世界是十分危险的。

8月份对金融市场来说尤其痛苦。1971年8月15日,理查德·尼克松总统宣布美国不再履行固定黄金价格的承诺,从此以后,世界步入了货币波动和不稳定的时代。1982年8月13日(星期五),墨西哥财政部长席尔瓦·赫尔佐格来到华盛顿,通知IMF和美国政府墨西哥无法按期偿付下周一的应付债务。1998年8月17日,俄罗斯总理基里延科宣布俄罗斯将同时实施违约和贬值。2007年8月第一周,IKB德意志工业银行(IKB Deutsche Industriebank)因美国次贷危机蔓延而倒闭。

这种季节性的危机周期早在一战以前的古典金本位时代就存在了。当时的解释通常可以从国际支付机制的时间可预测性中寻找。夏末,西半球农民会将庄家卖给贸易商以供出口,并要求现金支付,贸易商需要从银行中提现满足农民支付要求。其结果就是美国形成黄金需求,而英国和其他欧洲进口商承受汇率压力。

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