Ben Bernanke Larry Summers Wikimedia Commons

长期停滞的问题

德里—在美联储前主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)和美国财政部前部长萨默斯(Larry Summers)关于长期停滞可能性的最新交流中,双方都同意需要从全球角度看待这一问题。但从这个角度看2008年全球金融危机前的长期停滞假说与核心事实不符:全球增长平均达到了4%以上,是有记录以来的最高值。

伯南克的假说——慢增长反映了“全球储蓄过剩”也存在同样的问题。从凯恩斯主义角度看,储蓄的增加无法解释21世纪初世界经济活动的猛然活跃。

长期停滞假说的支持者似乎看错了问题。从真正的长期和全球角度看,困难在于解释危机前的繁荣。更准确地说,困难在于解释三大全球发展趋势的合一:增长(而非停滞)猛增、通胀下降,以及真实(经通胀调整的)利率降低。对着三大发展趋势的可信解释必须淡化纯粹的总需求框架,聚焦于新兴市场特别是中国的崛起。

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