Subprime-Wirtschaftstheorie

Die Möglichkeit, dass die Europäische Zentralbank mitten in einer Finanzkrise die Zinssätze erhöhen könnte, erinnert an die berühmte „Goldkreuz-Rede“ des großen amerikanischen Redners William Jennings Bryan von 1896. Im Hinblick auf die Deflationsneigung des internationalen Goldstandards wetterte Bryan: „Ihr sollt keine Dornenkrone auf die Stirn der Arbeiter drücken. Ihr sollt die Menschheit nicht an ein goldenes Kreuz nageln.“

Anders ausgedrückt, die einfachen Leute sollten nicht unter den Schwächen der Entscheidungsträger zu leiden haben, die in den Bann irgendeiner längst veralteten Wirtschaftstheorie gezogen wurden.

Heute lautet die längst veraltete Wirtschaftstheorie, dass eine rasche Verlagerung der Präferenzen – fantasievoll auch „geringerer Risikoappetit“ genannt – den Hauptgrund für die derzeitige Krise auf dem Subprime-Hypothekenmarkt und dem Finanzmarkt darstellt. Um eine zukünftige Steigerung dieses Appetits zu vermeiden, konzentrieren sich Entscheidungsträger und Experten auf das Problem des so genannten „Moral Hazard“ – der überhöhten Risikobereitschaft aufgrund staatlicher Absicherung: Die „Bösen“ müssen für ihre Fehler bezahlen, damit sie sie nicht noch einmal begehen.

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