Booms Estructurales

¿Por qué hay booms y caídas, esos largos movimientos pendulares entre el crecimiento y la desaceleración de la economía? Las explicaciones tradicionales se centran en las malas políticas monetarias. Mis investigaciones sostienen que son estructurales, el resultado de cambios fuertes en las expectativas sobre productividad y ganancias a futuro.

En el periodo entreguerras, los extremos eran las hiperinflaciones y las deflaciones profundas. No es de extrañar que para las escuelas austriaca, keynesiana y monetarista siempre fuera cuestión de cherchez la monnaie. Sin embargo, después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial, los largos movimientos pendulares continuaron, pero ya con patrones de inflación moderada. En los 1960 el desempleo casi desapareció en varios países europeos, pero sin que creciera la inflación. En los 1990 el empleo creció enormemente en varios países industrializados, de nuevo con inflación nula o mínima.

Yo considero estos movimientos ascendentes del ciclo pendular como booms en las iversiones que tienen causas y efectos estructurales. Los empresarios prevén nuevas oportunidades para el uso lucrativo del capital en el mediano plazo. Así, incrementan sus inversiones en instalaciones, clientes y empleados nuevos. Casi todas las inversiones empresariales generan mayor empleo, a través de canales no monetarios, sin el sobrecalentamiento inflacionario.

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