slow growth Mark Metcalfe/Stringer

Как уйти от новой нормы медленного роста

МИЛАН – Нет никаких сомнений, что восстановление после глобального спада, вызванного финансовым кризисом 2008 года, было необычайно длительным и вялым. Некоторые до сих пор ожидают ускорения роста. Но через восемь лет после того, как разразился кризис, происходящее с мировой экономикой скорее напоминает не медленное восстановление, а новое равновесие на низком уровне роста. Почему это происходит, и можем ли мы что-то с этим поделать?

Одно из возможных объяснений этой «новой нормы», на которую обратили внимание многие – снижение темпов роста производительности труда. Но, несмотря на значительный объем данных и обширный анализ, роль производительности труда в нынешней проблеме сложно определить – и, скорее всего, она на самом деле не столь важна, как думают многие.

Конечно, замедление роста производительности не идет на пользу долгосрочной экономической эффективности, и оно, возможно, является одной из сил, сдерживающих Соединенные Штаты по мере их приближения к «полной» занятости. Но в значительной части остального мира более важными кажутся другие факторы, а именно – недостаточный совокупный спрос и значительный разрыв между фактическим и потенциальным объемом производства, вызванные избытком производственных мощностей и недостаточным использованием активов (в том числе и людей).

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