slow growth Mark Metcalfe/Stringer

Wie man der neuen Normalität schwachen Wachstums entgeht

MAILAND – Die Erholung von der durch die Finanzkrise von 2008 ausgelösten globalen Rezession ist fraglos ungewöhnlich langwierig und blutleer abgelaufen. Einige erwarten noch immer einen Anstieg des Wachstums. Doch acht Jahre nach Ausbruch der Krise sieht es langsam so aus, als wäre das, was wir derzeit erleben, weniger eine langfristige Erholung als ein neues Equilibrium langsamen Wachstums. Warum ist das so, und können wir etwas dagegen tun?

Eine viel beachtete potenzielle Erklärung dieser „neuen Normalität“ ist ein Rückgang des Produktivitätswachstums. Doch trotz einer Menge Daten und Analysen ist die Rolle der Produktivität in der derzeitigen Wachstumsschwäche schwer festzumachen – und scheint tatsächlich weniger entscheidend zu sein als viele glauben.

Natürlich ist ein sich verlangsamendes Produktivitätswachstum nicht gut für die längerfristige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, und es könnte zu den Kräften gehören, die die USA trotz naher „Vollbeschäftigung“ ausbremsen. Doch in großen Teilen der übrigen Welt scheinen andere Faktoren wichtiger, insbesondere eine unzureichende Gesamtnachfrage und erhebliche Produktionslücken, deren Wurzeln in Kapazitätsüberschüssen und unzureichend genutzten Produktionsmitteln (einschließlich von Menschen) liegen.

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