slow growth Mark Metcalfe/Stringer

摆脱增长萎靡的新常态

米兰—毫无疑问,自2008年金融危机所引发的全球衰退以来,复苏反常地漫长而低迷。一些人仍在期待增长能够上扬。但是,危机爆发过去八年后,全球经济正在经历的与其说是慢复苏,不如说是新低增长均衡。这是怎么发生的呢?我们又能对此做些什么?

对于这一“新常态”,一个收获大量关注的潜在解释是生产率增长放缓。但是,尽管我们拥有大量数据和分析,但生产率在当前经济萎靡中的角色仍然难以定论——事实上,它似乎不如许多人所认为的那样重要。

当然,生产率增长放缓对长期经济表现是不利的,并且是美国在接近“充分”就业之际拖其后腿的因素之一。但是,在世界其他地方,其他因素——即源自产能过剩和资产(包括人力)利用率不足的总需求不足和巨大的产出缺口——似乎更加重要。

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