不要押注于美元升值

纽约—经济权威们几乎毫无例外地预测2015年美元将升值——这一预期正在让投资者们投下极重的赌注。但这一市场策略可能会铸成大错。

这一共识反映了一个事实:美国是当前唯一一个增长前景正在改善的主要经济体。最近,美国商务部向上修正去年三季度GDP增长数字至5%——11年来的最高水平。

此外,此次修正主要是基于个人消费和商业投资——GDP中最稳定、最持久的构成要素。消费者情绪正处在2007年的最高水平。低油价拉低了加油站的汽油价格,让美国家庭可以有更多的钱花在超市里,从而带来了额外的提振作用。失业率为5.6%,并呈现下降之势。

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