Contes et légendes de l’économie mondiale

NEW HAVEN – Après avoir touché le fond début mars, les principales bourses mondiales sont reparties à la hausse. Certaines d’entre elles, notamment au Brésil et en Chine, ont plongé à la fin de l’automne dernier et à nouveau en mars avant de rebondir fortement. La Bovespa et l’indice Shanghai Composite ont ainsi progressé respectivement de 75 pour cent et de 54 pour cent en mai par rapport à la fin octobre 2008. Dans l’ensemble, les indices boursiers sont positifs partout dans le monde depuis le mois de mars.

Faut-il penser que la crise économique mondiale tire à sa fin ? Se pourrait-il que tout le monde ait simultanément retrouvé son optimisme, mettant ainsi rapidement un terme à tous nos problèmes ?

Les emballements spéculatifs sont générés par des réactions psychologiques. La hausse des cours donne lieu à des histoires sur des investisseurs malins qui s’enrichissent rapidement. Ces succès provoquent à leur tour la jalousie d’autres personnes qui commencent à se demander si cette hausse ne présage pas d’autres hausses futures. La tentation est grande d’entrer sur le marché, même pour les personnes qui doutent fortement que la hausse se poursuive. La hausse des cours se nourrit ainsi d’elle-même et le cycle se répète encore et encore – mais pour un certain temps seulement.

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