Světová ekonomika založená na příbězích

NEW HAVEN – Od počátku března, kdy hlavní světové akciové trhy dosáhly dna, začaly všechny dramaticky stoupat. Některé z nich, zejména burzy v Číně a Brazílii, si sáhly na dno už loni na podzim a letos v březnu znovu, načež se prudce zotavily: brazilská Bovespa posílila v květnu oproti konci října 2008 o 75% a složený index šanghajské burzy vzrostl zhruba za stejné období o 54%. Velmi dobré zprávy však od března přicházejí prakticky ze všech světových akciových trhů.

Naznačuje to, že se světová hospodářská krize chýlí ke konci? Je možné, že se všichni současně opět stanou optimisty a všechny naše problémy rázem ustanou?

Spekulativní boomy vyvolává psychologická zpětná vazba. Rostoucí ceny akcií dávají vzniknout příběhům o chytrých investorech, kteří zbohatli. Lidé si navzájem závidí úspěchy a začínají si klást otázku, zda stoupající ceny nevěstí další vzestup. Objevuje se pokušení vstoupit na trh, a to i mezi lidmi, kteří zásadně pochybují, že boom bude pokračovat. Stoupající ceny tedy vyvolávají další vzestup cen a celý cyklus se znovu a znovu opakuje – po nějakou dobu.

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