为世界经济讲故事的时间到了

纽黑文-全球主要股票市场在今年三月初见底以来,都涨幅巨大。有些股票市场,特别是中国和巴西的股票市场,在大幅反弹之前——巴西Bovespa股指与2008年10月底相比上涨了75%,上证综指在同期大约上涨了54%——在去年秋天和今年三月份两次达到了低点。然而,今年三月份以来,有关世界各地股票市场的消息,都是好消息。

股市的上涨意味着世界经济危机即将结束吗?这有可能是因为所有的人再次同时变得乐观起来,从而使我们面临的所有问题都快速结束了吗?

  人类的心理反应推动了投机性繁荣。股票市场的上涨,会制造出聪明的投资者在股票市场上发财的故事。人们开始嫉妒其他人的成功,并认为股票价格的上涨有可能预示着进一步的上涨。因此,进入股票市场对人们的吸引了增加了,这即使对那些从根本上怀疑股票市场的繁荣能否持续下去的人,也是如此。所以,人们对股票价格上涨的反应反过来又会引起股票价格的进一步上涨,而且这个周期在一段时间里反复发生。

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