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Остановить взрывной рост федерального долга Америки

КЕМБРИДЖ – Бюджетный отдел Конгресса США (CBO) только что сообщил плохую новость: национальный долг сейчас растет быстрее ВВП, и соотношение этих величин приближается к такому, которое мы привыкли связывать, скорее, с Италией или Испанией. Это подтверждает мою точку зрения о том, что бюджетный дефицит – наиболее серьезная проблема, стоящая перед американскими политиками.

Десять лет назад федеральный долг составлял всего лишь 35 % от ВВП. Сейчас он почти вдвое больше, и в 2026 году, по прогнозу, достигнет 86 %. Но это только начало. Дефицит годового бюджета, запланированный на 2026 год, составляет 5 % от ВВП. Если он останется на этом уровне, процент долга в конце концов вырастет до 125 %.

Даже этот прогноз предполагает, что процентные ставки по национальному долгу будут увеличиваться медленно и в среднем составят менее 3,5 % в 2026 году. Но если соотношение долга к ВВП действительно ускоренными темпами приближается к трехзначному, то у инвесторов в США и за рубежом могут возникнуть обоснованные опасения, что правительство утратило контроль над процессом формирования бюджета.

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