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Wie sich die Schuldenexplosion auf Bundesebene in den USA stoppen lässt

CAMBRIDGE – Das US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) hat gerade die schlechte Nachricht übermittelt, dass die US-Staatsverschuldung inzwischen schneller steigt als das BIP und auf Verhältniswerte zusteuert, wie man sie normalerweise mit Italien oder Spanien in Verbindung bringt. Dies bestätigt meine Sicht, dass das Haushaltsdefizit das schwerwiegendste langfristige Wirtschaftsproblem ist, vor dem die US-Politik steht.

Noch vor zehn Jahren beliefen sich die Schulden des Bundes auf bloße 35% vom BIP. Inzwischen sind sie mehr als doppelt so hoch und sollen Prognosen zufolge 2026 86% erreichen. Aber das ist nur der Anfang. Das für 2026 prognostizierte Haushaltsdefizit beträgt 5% vom BIP. Bliebe es auf diesem Niveau, würde die Schuldenquote letztlich auf 125% steigen.

Dabei geht selbst diese Prognose davon aus, dass die Zinssätze für US-Staatsanleihen nur langsam steigen und 2026 durchschnittlich bei unter 3,5% liegen werden. Doch wenn sich die US-Schuldenquote tatsächlich auf der Überholspur hin zu einem dreistelligen Niveau befindet, könnten die Anleger in den USA und im Ausland es zu Recht mit der Angst bekommen, dass die Regierung die Kontrolle über das Haushaltsverfahren verloren hat.

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