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阻止美国联邦债务突进

坎布里奇—美国国会预算办公室(CBO)刚刚公布了一则坏消息,眼下美国国民债务增长比GDP更快,其比率正在向意大利和西班牙靠拢。这印证了我的观点:财务赤字是美国决策者现在面临的最严重的长期经济问题。

十年前,联邦债务只占GDP的35%。如今,这一比率上升了一倍,预计到2026年底,将达到86%。但这只是开始。2026年年预算赤字预计将达到GDP的5%。如果保持这一水平,债务比率最终将升高到125%。

甚至这一预测也需要假设国民债务利率增长将十分缓慢,到2026年平均不到3.5%。但如果美国债务比率果真一路突飞猛进达到三位数水平,美国和海外投资者可能会正确地担心政府将失去对预算流程的控制。

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