Dejemos de escarbar y empecemos a pensar

El 9 de octubre de 2006 se convertirá en un día para recordar. Es probable que, ese día, Norcorea haya hecho estallar una bomba nuclear. ¿Fue una prueba que falló? El futuro tal vez ofrezca respuestas, pero las consecuencias políticas son evidentes y el impacto, sustancial.

En primer lugar, la presión internacional, encabezada por Estados Unidos, China, Rusia y Japón, no fue suficiente para impedir que Norcorea tomara esta medida desafortunada. Una dictadura terrible, un régimen sin futuro y un pigmeo en términos de diplomacia respaldada por la amenaza de fuerza desafiaron a los gigantes internacionales. Hoy la furia es justificable y, por todas partes, se hace oír el reclamo de sanciones.

Pero, ¿cuál será el efecto de las sanciones contra un régimen cuyo objetivo es sobrevivir a través del autoaislamiento, un régimen que no tendrá remordimiento alguno a la hora de sacrificar despiadadamente a su pueblo? Por otra parte, ¿puede acaso China permitir sanciones duras contra su vecino, un régimen que lucha por la supervivencia, equipado con armas y misiles nucleares, y un desastre humanitario del más alto nivel contra su población? ¿Cuán creíbles y efectivas pueden ser las sanciones?

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