Creusons-nous la tête au lieu de creuser des abris

On se souviendra du 9 octobre 2006. Ce jour-là, la Corée du Nord a sans doute fait exploser une bombe nucléaire. S'agissait-il d'un test raté ? L'avenir nous fournira peut-être des réponses, mais les répercussions politiques sont déjà claires et l'impact substantiel.

Premièrement, la pression internationale, exercée par les États-Unis, la Chine, la Russie et le Japon, n'a pas suffi à empêcher la Corée du Nord de se lancer dans cette démarche fatidique. Une terrible dictature, un régime sans avenir et un nain en termes de puissance politique a osé défier les géants internationaux. Le scandale est justifié, et on entend partout un appel aux sanctions.

Mais quels seront les effets de sanctions contre un régime dont l'objectif est la survie par l'autarcie, un régime qui n'aura aucun scrupule à sacrifier son peuple sans aucune pitié ? En outre, la Chine peut-elle vraiment permettre la mise en application de sanctions sévères contre son voisin, un régime qui lutte pour sa survie, équipé d'armes et de missiles nucléaires, dont la population subit un désastre humanitaire à la plus grande échelle qui soit ? À quel point des sanctions peuvent-elles être crédibles et efficaces ?

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