Акции и длительный период

БЕРКЛИ – После второго падения индекса курсов обычных акций на 40% в течение одного десятилетия, согласно американскому рейтинговому агенству Standard & Poor, глобальные инвесторы в трансе. Средства, которые были вложены и повторно вложены в индекс S&P, с 1998 по 2008 годы принесли нулевой реальный доход: дивидендов, заработанных на портфеле ценных бумаг, хватило только на то, чтобы компенсировать инфляцию. С 1982 года не прошло ни одного десятилетия, в конце которого инвесторы были бы более обеспеченными, если бы они вложили свои деньги в корпоративные или казначейские облигации США, а не в диверсифицированный портфель акций.

Таким образом, инвесторы задаются вопросом: будут ли будущие десятилетия похожи на последнее десятилетие? Если да, то не стоит ли избегать инвестировать в акции?

Ответ – почти однозначно нет. В течение периода времени в одно или два десятилетия прошлые показатели акций и облигаций не являются ни надежной гарантией, ни хорошим руководством для будущих результатов. Таким периодам, как 1998-2008 годы, во время  которых акции ведут себя относительно плохо, предшествуют периоды – такие как 1978-1988 и 1988-1998  годы – в течение которых они ведут себя относительно хорошо, и за ними во всей вероятности следуют подобные периоды.

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