Actions sur le long terme

Berkeley – Après la deuxième chute de 40 % d’actions ordinaires en dix ans, selon l’indice composite américain Standard & Poor, les investisseurs sont en état de choc. Les fonds investis et réinvestis dans l’indice composite Standard & Poor entre 1998 et 2008 ont généré un rendement réel égal à zéro : les dividendes gagnés sur le portefeuille ont tout juste suffi à compenser l’inflation. Il ne s’est pas passé une décennie depuis 1982 sans que les investisseurs se disent au bout du compte qu’ils auraient mieux fait de placer leur argent dans des obligations de société ou des bons du Trésor américain plutôt que dans des portefeuilles d’actions diversifiés.

Par conséquent, les investisseurs se demandent si les prochaines décennies seront-elles du même acabit que les décennies passées. Si c’est le cas, faudra-t-il éviter d’investir dans les actions ?

Nous sommes presque sûrs que la réponse est négative. Dans dix ou vingt ans, les records passés des actions et des obligations ne seront ni une garantie ni un guide fiables pour les résultats futurs. Les périodes comme 1998-2008, où les actions n’ont pas fait de miracles, sont précédées de périodes (comme 1978-1988 et 1988-1998) où elles se portent relativement bien et sont généralement suivies de périodes similaires.

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