Akcie a dlouhodobý výhled

BERKELEY – Americký kompozitní index kmenových akcií sestavovaný Standard & Poor’s se už podruhé během dekády propadl o 40% a globální investoři jsou otřeseni. Kapitál investovaný a reinvestovaný do indexu S&P v letech 1998 až 2008 zaznamenal nulový reálný výnos: dividendy získané z portfolia stačily tak akorát na vyrovnání inflace. Od roku 1982 neuběhla jediná dekáda, na jejímž konci by na tom investoři byli líp, kdyby své peníze nevložili do diverzifikovaného portfolia akcií, ale do firemních obligací či do dluhopisů ministerstva financí Spojených států.

Investoři se tudíž tážou: budou nadcházející desetiletí stejná jako to předchozí? Pokud ano, nebylo by správné se investicím do akcií vyhýbat?

Odpověď je téměř určitě záporná. V časovém horizontu jednoho či dvou desetiletí není dřívější výkon akcií a dluhopisů ani spolehlivou zárukou budoucích výsledků, ani vhodným vodítkem. Obdobím, jako byly roky 1998-2008, kdy se akciím daří relativně špatně, předcházejí doby, kdy se jim daří relativně dobře, jako v letech 1978-1988 a 1988-1998, a se vší pravděpodobností po nich budou podobné periody i následovat.

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