股票从长计

伯克利—在美国的标准普尔成分股票指数十年里第二次跌幅超过40%之后,全球的投资者们已经见惯不惊了。在1998-2008年间被投资并再投资于标普的成分股的资金所产生的真实回报为零:该股票组合所收益的股息正好可以抵消通胀。自1982年以来的任何一个十年期里,投资者们投资于多种股票组合所获得的回报都不如他们(如果)投资于公司或美国国库券本可以获得的收益。

因此他们不禁茫然:未来的十年会一如过去的十年么?果真如此,难道不应该避免投资股票么?

答案几乎必然是否定的。在十年或二十年的时间段中,股票和债券在过去的表现既不是一种可靠的保证也不是对未来结果的指南。在股票相对表现欠佳的1998-2008年之前是股票表现相对较好的1978-1988年和1988-1998年两个时期。而且当时看来它们之后的十年这种好的趋势很可能会持续。

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