股票市场的幻想

纵观历史,股票市场一贯表现良好。Jeremy Siegel在其2002年的著作《长期投资股票》中说到美国股票市场在1802年至2001年期间每年实际汇报率达到6.9%。尽管每十年的回报率都有所变动,甚至有某几十年还出现了负回报率,但总体来说它表现平稳。这6.9%的平均年回报率已经被认为是“Siegel衡量”,就好像Siegel发现了自然新规律一样。

股票市场未来将继续表现良好的观点受到众人追捧,尤其是那些准备出售股票投资的人。在美国,总统乔治W·布什的加强社会安全委员会(Commission to Strengthen Social Security)在它的声明中引用Siegel的话,政府应该鼓励人们投资股市。布什已经在全国范围内推广一种投资于股票和债券的个人退休账户计划,并预计该计划将在未来几十年内将达到6.5%的实质回报率——这只比Siegel的定律低了一点。

但是大多数人不相信股票市场未来会有如此上佳表现。Siegel最近预测美国股票市场在今后四十年中回报率只有6%。其他人的预计则更低。

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