Stock broker nyc Hernan Seoane/Flickr

¿Están las acciones sobrevaluadas?

MILÁN – Desde la crisis económica global, la marcada divergencia económica contribuyó a una alta volatilidad de los mercados accionarios. Las acciones están alcanzando precios relativamente altos según criterios convencionales, y los inversores comienzan a ponerse nerviosos.

¿Son las cotizaciones excesivas respecto del potencial de ganancias futuras? La respuesta depende de dos variables clave: la tasa de descuento y el crecimiento de ganancias esperado. Si lo primero fuera bajo o lo segundo fuera alto, el precio actual de las acciones se justificaría.

La relación precio/ganancias del índice S&P en los últimos 12 meses está cerca de 20; la media y la mediana históricas son respectivamente 15,53 y 14,57. La relación P/G del índice de Shiller (que se basa en las ganancias reales, ajustadas por inflación, de los últimos diez años) está en 27,08, con media y mediana de 16,59 y 15,96, respectivamente. Y en febrero, la relación P/G prospectiva a 12 meses (que se basa en las estimaciones de ganancias publicadas por las empresas) llegó a 17,1, el máximo en 11 años; el promedio de los últimos cinco y diez años está en alrededor de 14 y el de los últimos quince años en 16.

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