Stock broker nyc Hernan Seoane/Flickr

Le cours des actions est-il surévalué ?

MILAN – Depuis la crise économique mondiale, de profondes divergences en termes de performance économique viennent amplifier la volatilité considérable du marché boursier. À l’heure actuelle, les prix des actions atteignent des niveaux relativement élevés par rapport aux mesures conventionnelles – et les investisseurs commencent à s’en inquiéter.

La question est de savoir si le niveau des cours est excessif par rapport aux rendements potentiels futurs. La réponse à cette question dépend de deux variables clés : taux d’actualisation et croissance des rendements futurs. En effet, la présence d’un taux d’actualisation plus faible et/ou d’un taux de croissance plus élevé des rendements escomptés justifierait un cours supérieur des actions.

Le ratio prix/rendement (P/E) de S&P en glissement annuel tourne autour de 20, pour une moyenne à long terme de 15,53 et une médiane de 14,57. Le ratio Shiller P/E – basé sur un rendement réel moyen (ajusté à l’inflation) sur les dix dernières années – s’élève à 27,08, avec une moyenne et une médiane de respectivement 16,59 et 15,96. En outre, au mois de février, le ratio P/E prévisionnel à 12 mois, qui fait appel aux orientations des gestionnaires sur les rendements futurs, atteignait un pic de 17,1 à 11 ans, les moyennes à cinq et dix ans s’élevant aux alentours de 14, la moyenne à 15 ans atteignant 16.

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