Stock broker nyc Hernan Seoane/Flickr

股票高估了吗?

米兰—自全球经济危机以来,经济表现的巨大差异导致了股票市场的剧烈波动。如今,从常规指标看,股价已经到达了相对较高的位置——投资者也开始紧张起来。

问题在于,相对于未来盈利潜力,股票估值是否过高。答案取决于两大关键变量:贴现率和未来盈利增长。较低贴现率和/或较高预期盈利增长意味着股票估值也可以更高。

标准普尔12个月前瞻市盈率接近20,而长期平均值和中位值分别为15.53和14.57。希勒市盈率——取决于过去十年的平均实际(经通胀调整的)盈利——为27.08,平均值和中位值分别为16.59和15.96。此外,2月份12个月前瞻市盈率——根据经理人未来盈利指引算出——达到了11年来的高点17.1,五年和十年平均水平为14左右,15年平均水平为16。

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