Konjunktur ankurbeln oder sterben

NEW YORK – Die grünen Triebe der wirtschaftlichen Erholung, die viele in diesem Frühling erspähten, sind braun geworden, und so werden Fragen darüber laut, ob die Strategie, der Wirtschaft mit einem massiven Konjunkturprogramm Starthilfe zu geben, gescheitert ist. Hat sich die keynesianische Wirtschaftslehre als falsch erwiesen, nun da sie auf die Probe gestellt wurde?

Diese Frage wäre jedoch nur dann sinnvoll, wenn die keynesianische Lehre wirklich ausprobiert worden wäre. Was jetzt gebraucht wird, ist tatsächlich eine weitere Dosis fiskalischer Anreize. Wenn dies nicht geschieht, können wir uns auf einen noch längeren Zeitraum freuen, in dem die Wirtschaft ihre Kapazität nicht ausschöpft und hohe Arbeitslosigkeit herrscht.

Die Regierung Obama scheint überrascht und enttäuscht zu sein über die hohe und steigende Arbeitslosigkeit. Das sollte sie nicht sein. Es war alles vorhersehbar. Der wahre Maßstab für den Erfolg des Konjunkturpakets ist nicht die tatsächliche Arbeitslosenzahl, sondern wie hoch die Arbeitslosigkeit ohne dieses Paket gewesen wäre. Die Regierung Obama hat stets deutlich gesagt, dass sie ca. drei Millionen Arbeitsplätze mehr schaffen würde, als andernfalls vorhanden wären . Das Problem ist, dass der Schock der Wirtschaft durch die Finanzkrise so groß war, dass selbst Obamas anscheinend gewaltiges Konjunkturpaket nicht genug ist.

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