Stimuler l’économie ou périr

NEW YORK -  Maintenant que les « pousses vertes » de la relance économique observées par de nombreux analystes ce printemps se sont fanées, la question se pose de savoir si la politique consistant à faire redémarrer l’économie au moyen d’un énorme paquet fiscal s’est soldée par un échec. Les théories économiques keynésiennes se sont-elles révélées fausses une fois mises à l’épreuve ?

Mais cette question n’aurait de sens que si des mesures véritablement keynésiennes avaient été appliquées. En fait, une nouvelle dose de stimuli fiscaux est aujourd’hui nécessaire, sans quoi nous pouvons nous attendre à une économie fonctionnant au ralenti, avec un taux de chômage élevé, sur une période encore plus longue.

L’administration Obama semble surprise et déçue du taux élevé et toujours croissant du chômage - sans raison, car tout était prévisible. La véritable mesure du succès du plan de relance n’est pas le taux actuel de chômage, mais celui qu’il aurait pu atteindre sans le paquet fiscal. L’administration Obama a toujours clairement indiqué qu’elle créerait près de trois millions d’emplois de plus que ceux qui auraient normalement été créés . Le problème est que le coup porté à l’économie par la crise financière a été si sévère que même le plan de relance à première vue énorme de l’administration n’a pas été suffisant.

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