Mike Strasser/Flickr

Guía de un economista para la guerra y la paz

NUEVA YORK – Las noticias sobre conflictos acaparan los titulares actuales: ya sea sobre la guerra civil siria, las batallas callejeras en Ucrania, el terrorismo en Nigeria o la represión policiaca en Brasil, la inmediatez espantosa de la violencia es demasiado evidente. Sin embargo, mientras los comentaristas debaten sobre las cuestiones geoestratégicas, la disuasión, la lucha étnica y el drama de las personas comunes en medio de todo, rara vez se aborda de forma objetiva el tema de otro elemento vital de los conflictos –su costo económico.

La violencia conlleva un alto precio. El costo global de contener la violencia o tratar sus consecuencias alcanzó la increíble suma de 9.5 billones de dólares (11% del PIB mundial) en 2012. Esto es más del doble del tamaño del sector agrícola mundial y supera el gasto total en ayuda exterior.

Ante estas sumas colosales, es crucial que los responsables del diseño de políticas analicen adecuadamente dónde y cuándo se gasta el dinero, y pensar formas de reducir dicho gasto. Por desgracia, es raro que se reflexione seriamente sobre estos asuntos. En gran medida se debe a que las campañas militares están motivadas muchas veces por cuestiones geoestratégicas, no por lógica financiera. Aunque los oponentes a la guerra de Irak podrían haber acusado a los Estados Unidos de codiciar los campos petroleros del país, la campaña no estaba diseñada en términos económicos, sin entrar en detalles. La guerra en Vietnam y otros conflictos también fueron catástrofes financieras.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/LbDu57Y/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now