La sindrome della velocità di stallo

NEW HAVEN – La "ricaduta" è un evento normale nell'economia globale post crisi. Nel primo semestre del 2014, la crescita del Pil negli Stati Uniti, in Giappone e in Europa ha vacillato di nuovo. Queste battute d'arresto, però, non sono certo una coincidenza. Una crescita da tempo fiacca in tutto il mondo sviluppato ha reso le principali economie particolarmente vulnerabili agli inevitabili ostacoli presenti sul cammino.

Certo, vi sono delle giustificazioni – quelle non mancano mai. Una contrazione dell'economia statunitense nel primo trimestre dell'anno è stata associata a condizioni climatiche avverse e chiuso l'argomento. Il calo del Giappone nel secondo trimestre è stato attribuito a un aumento dell'imposta sul valore aggiunto. La crescita stagnante dell'Europa nel secondo trimestre è stata sbrigativamente definita un'aberrazione che riflette la confluenza di effetti climatici e sanzioni imposte alla Russia.

Per quanto allettante possa sembrare il fatto di ascrivere questi sviluppi a fattori idiosincratici, il rallentamento registrato di recente nei paesi sviluppati non può essere liquidato su due piedi. Mancando di vigore ciclico dopo gravi recessioni, le economie di oggi trovano particolarmente arduo minimizzare l'impatto degli shock ed evitare parabole di crescita anemica.

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