Obama and Xi walking White House Photo/Pete Souza

反思中美关系

纽黑文—7月初,美国和中国高官将在北京举行第六次战略和经济对话(Strategic and Economic Dialogue)。两国在诸多方面都存在双边摩擦——包括网络安全、东海和南海领土纠纷以及货币政策——因此此次峰会是一次深刻反思这两个全球最强大国家关系的良机。

美国和中国陷入了一个不太舒服的状态——它们互为经济对手,形成了心理学家所谓的“共存”(codependency)关系。两国关系的升温始于20世纪70年代末,当时中国需要收拾文化大革命留下的残局,而美国则陷入了与滞涨的苦斗。两个极度渴望经济增长的国家一拍即合,好像为利益而结合的夫妻。

中国很快就开始从出口拉动型经济模式中获益。这一模式的关键就在于依靠美国作为最大需求源。美国则利用中国的低成本商品助囿于收入的消费者一臂之力,产生了最终需求;同时也从中国进口过剩储蓄填补其前所未有的国内储蓄不足,中国对美国国债的巨大胃口让美国不再担忧赤字。

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