Il rompicapo della crescita cinese

NEW HAVEN – Ancora una volta, gli occhi di tutti sono puntati sui mercati emergenti – a lungo beniamini delle scommesse sulla crescita globale – che dall’inizio del 2014 sembrano soffrire di un calo di popolarità. L'impressione di resilienza che se ne aveva, infatti, ha ceduto il posto a una preoccupante sensazione di vulnerabilità.

La riduzione delle ingenti iniezioni di liquidità voluta dalla Federal Reserve ha funto da fattore scatenante. Le economie emergenti troppo dipendenti dai flussi di capitali globali – in particolare l'India, l'Indonesia, il Brasile, il Sudafrica e la Turchia – hanno ora difficoltà a finanziare la crescita economica. Ma l'angoscia per la situazione della Cina incombe altrettanto minacciosa, e le annose preoccupazioni di un temuto "atterraggio duro" dell'economia cinese sono diventate ancora più reali.

Nella morsa di una crisi, si tende a generalizzare; alla fine, però, differenziare è la scelta vincente. A differenza delle economie emergenti soggette al disavanzo, che ora navigano in cattive acque – e i cui squilibri ricordano in modo sorprendente quelli delle economie asiatiche colpite dalla crisi finanziaria alla fine degli anni '90 – la Cina vanta un surplus delle partite correnti. Pertanto, non corre alcun rischio di deflusso delle gestioni di portafoglio come conseguenza della riduzione degli acquisti di titoli da parte della Fed. E, naturalmente, le smisurate garanzie pubbliche della Cina, pari a 3.800 miliardi dollari in riserve di valuta estera, offrono un'ampia assicurazione in caso di contagio finanziario.

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