中国的增长谜团

发自纽黑文——全世界的目光再一次聚焦到了新兴市场身上。但长期在全球增长竞赛中赢得万千宠爱的它们在2014年初却遭到了挫败。对快速恢复的预期也让位给了经济脆弱不堪的恐惧

一个明显且重要的导火索就是美联储开始逐渐减少其前所未有的流动性注入。导致那些过度依赖国际资金流入的新兴经济体——尤其是印度、印尼、巴西,南非和土耳其——发现为本国经济增长融资日益困难。而对中国的绝望情绪也同样四处弥漫。长期以来存在的中国经济“硬着陆”忧虑也不断加深。

在危机爆发时期,一概而论是常态;但到了最后却总会显现出区别。相比与那些如今惹上麻烦的长期逆差新兴经济体——这些国家的经济失衡状况与那些遭受1990年代后期金融危机冲击的亚洲经济体惊人地相似——中国拥有经常帐户顺差。因此也不存在因美联储缩减每月资产购买规模而导致投资外流风险。当然,3.8万亿美元的庞大外汇储备后盾也会在金融崩溃加剧之际提供足够保障。

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