La discordance de la politique chinoise

NEW HAVEN – Les déclarations politiques de la Chine ont émaillé les derniers mois de 2013. Entre le programme de réforme en 60 points publié lors de la Troisième session plénière du Comité central début novembre et les six missions essentielles approuvées lors de la Conférence sur l'emploi de l'économie centrale un mois plus tard, les dirigeants chinois ont annoncé un nouveau train de mesures pour relever les importants défis qui attendent leur pays dans les prochaines années.

Mais d'un point de vue global, leur risque d'incohérence ne fait plus de doute. A titre d'exemple, les initiatives de la Troisième session plénière ont une orientation stratégique : assurer la promotion tant attendue d'un rééquilibrage structurel de l'économie qui encourage la consommation. Bien que les missions essentielles de la Conférence sur l'emploi incarnent l'esprit de ces réformes, elles expriment aussi une orientation tactique : « maintenir une croissance stable ». Étant donné les compromis possibles entre stratégie et tactique, c'est-à-dire entre les réformes à long terme et les impératifs de croissance à court terme, les décideurs chinois peuvent-ils vraiment réaliser l'ensemble de leurs objectifs ?

Ces compromis sont depuis longtemps une évidence pour la plupart des économies, qu'elles soient développées ou bien en voie de développement. Ce qui faisait de la Chine une exception était sa forte propension à mettre davantage l'accent sur les objectifs stratégiques pour tracer la voie de son développement économique.

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