Amerikas trügerische Hoffnung

NEW HAVEN – Die Finanzmärkte und der sogenannte Davoser Konsens stimmen weitgehend überein, dass in den USA endlich so etwas wie eine klassische zyklische Erholung ansteht. Aber stimmt das?

Auf den ersten Blick scheint die Freude berechtigt. Das reale BIP-Wachstum scheint in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2013 knapp 4% betragen zu haben, fast doppelt so viel wie die 2,2% der vorangegangen vier Jahre. Die Arbeitslosenquote ist endlich unter die Schwelle von 7% gefallen. Und die Federal Reserve hat dieses scheinbar ermutigende Szenario bestätigt, indem sie begonnen hat, ihre Käufe langfristiger Wertpapiere zurückzufahren.

Mein Rat freilich wäre, den Champagner im Kühlschrank zu lassen. Zwei Quartale sich verstärkenden BIP-Wachstum taugen kaum als Beleg für einen Ausbruch aus einer blutleeren Erholung. Dasselbe ist seit Ende der Großen Rezession Mitte 2009 schon zweimal passiert – mit einer durchschnittlichen annualisierten Zunahme von 3,4% im zweiten und dritten Quartal 2010 und von 4,3% im vierten Quartal 2011 und ersten Quartal 2012. In beiden Fällen erwies sich die Erholung als kurzlebig.

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