أميركا والفجر الكاذب

نيوهافين ــ هناك اتفاق واسع النطاق بين الأسواق المالية وما يسمى بإجماع دافوس على أن الولايات المتحدة ربما تشهد قريباً ما يشبه دورة انتعاش كلاسيكية طال انتظارها. ولكن هل هذا صحيح؟

للوهلة الأولى، يبدو الاحتفال مبررا. فيبدو أن نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي اقترب في المتوسط من 4% في النصف الثاني من عام 2013، أي ما يقرب من ضعف مستوى السنوات الأربع السابقة (2.2%). وأخيراً انخفض معدل البطالة إلى ما دون عتبة الـ 7%. كما أضفى بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركية المصداقية على هذا السيناريو المثير للتفاؤل ظاهرياً بالشروع في تنفيذ خطة الخفض التدريجي لمشترياته من الأصول الطويلة الأجل.

ولكن نصيحتي هي أن نؤجل الاحتفال بعض الوقت. ذلك أن تحسن نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي على مدى ربعين ليس بالمؤشر الذي يدل على الإفلات من التعافي الهزيل. فقد حدث نفس الشيء مرتين منذ نهاية الركود العظيم في منتصف عام 2009 ــ حيث بلغ المتوسط السنوي للزيادة 3.4% في الربع الثاني والثالث من عام 2010، ونحو 4.3% في الربع الرابع من عام 2011 والربع الأول من عام 2012. وفي الحالتين تبين أن الارتفاع كان قصير الأجل.

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