Rivitalizzare i consumi cinesi

PECHINO – Anche se sarà la storia a giudicare, ci sono buone ragioni per credere che il Terzo Plenun del Partito comunista cinese, conclusosi di recente, sarà ricordato come un momento cruciale per lo sviluppo della Cina. Finalmente, la classe dirigente del paese ha approvato una serie di riforme in grado di imprimere un nuovo corso all'economia, passando da una forte dipendenza dalle esportazioni a una crescita basata sui consumi.

Fino a oggi, questa trasformazione è stata espressa in termini di obiettivi e aspirazioni generali. Ad esempio, il XII piano quinquennale, adottato nel marzo 2011, prometteva la nascita di un'economia orientata ai consumatori, basata sull'urbanizzazione e sullo sviluppo di un settore dei servizi ancora allo stato embrionale. Malgrado la portata di queste promesse, tese a creare opportunità per la classe media cinese, mancava un elemento essenziale: gli incentivi per le famiglie a convertire il reddito ritrovato in consumi voluttuari.

D'altro canto, l'insicurezza economica e finanziaria tiene in scacco le famiglie cinesi sin da quando la "ciotola di riso di ferro" – il sostegno vita natural durante che lo Stato socialista offriva ai lavoratori e alle loro famiglie – fu abolita alla fine degli anni '90. Temendo per il proprio futuro, le famiglie hanno accumulato reddito incrementale, anziché spenderlo in beni di consumo. Gli economisti definiscono questo comportamento "risparmio precauzionale", mentre i leader cinesi lo hanno definito "frustrante".

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