China and US US State Dept/Flickr

La Cina tende una trappola mentale all’America

NEW HAVEN – Resistere alla tentazione di estrapolare, ovvero estendere un principio per analogia, è difficile. Un trend può esercitare una forte influenza tanto sui mercati quanto sui politici, sulle famiglie e sulle imprese. Gli osservatori più acuti, però, riescono a cogliere i limiti del pensiero lineare perché sanno che le linee si piegano e, talvolta, si spezzano addirittura. Questo accade oggi esaminando i due fattori chiave che influenzano l'economia globale, cioè il rischio associato alla strategia politica americana e lo stato dell'economia cinese.

Il Quantitative Easing, o QE (il programma della Federal Reserve che prevede acquisti mensili di asset a lungo termine), è apparso all’inizio come un nobile e disperato tentativo, piuttosto ben articolato, di trovare un antidoto contro una crisi dilaniante. Le ipotesi a posteriori sono sempre ingannevoli, ma non si può negare che le iniezioni di liquidità tra la fine del 2008 e l'inizio del 2009 abbiano giocato un ruolo cruciale nel risparmiare al mondo una situazione ben più grave della Grande Recessione.

La combinazione tra strumenti di finanziamento specifici e il primo ciclo di quantitative easing ha fatto schizzare il bilancio della Fed a 2.300 miliardi di dollari nel marzo 2009, dal livello registrato nell'estate del 2008, cioè prima della crisi, pari a 900 miliardi dollari. E il gelo che era calato sui mercati sconquassati dalla crisi si è sciolto.

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