人民币喧嚣卷土重来

纽黑文—最近几个月来,人民币一直在贬值,操纵论、竞争性贬值论和以邻为壑的重商主义论再度兴起。4月中旬,美国财政部“非常严重关注”这一发展态势,对这一中美之间最具争议的经济政策问题煽风点火。

这场争论已是老生常谈——来源于政治,经济学基础并不可靠——它使双方的注意力从远为重要的其他影响中美经济关系的问题上移开,对双方都造成了极大的不利影响。说得极端些,美国的指控可能让世界最大的两个经济体滑向贸易摩擦、保护主义甚至更糟糕的情形。

首先来看事实:自2014年1月14日触及最高点以来,到4月25日,人民币兑美元汇率已下跌3.4%。此前,从2005年7月21日中国取消盯住美元政策,开始采用所谓的“有管理的浮动”机制以来,人民币累计升值37%。若与近九年前的起始点相比,人民币仍升值了32.5%。

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