Renminbi bank notes Si Wei/Xinhua via ZUMA Wire

为人民币设定下限

北京—中国人民银行面临着两难。近十年来,它一直试图遏制人民币持续升值预期(受中国经常和资本项目盈余推动),终于在2014年一季度取得了成功,其强力市场干预拉低了人民币汇率,打击了套息交易。但是,如今,中国人民银行面临着一个更加艰巨的挑战——在中国最经不起不确定性增加的时候,看起来不可逆转的贬值预期正在破坏经济稳定。

2014年的干预恰逢中国经济基本面转弱,因此它最终起到了推波助澜的作用。它提供的不是可信的汇率升值压力抵抗力(这是它的初衷),而是引发了彻底的反转,贬值预期开始在外汇市场上愈演愈烈。

因此,2014年二季度,中国资本账户出现了数十年来的首次逆差。而在2015年一季度,这一逆差已经超出经常项目盈余,这意味着中国在近期首次出现国际收支逆差。

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