Paul Lachine

В состоянии риска

ЛОНДОН. Великий экономический спад 2008-2009 гг. был спровоцирован накоплением избыточных долгов и кредитов семьями, финансовыми учреждениями и даже корпоративным сектором во многих странах с развитой экономикой. Несмотря на то, что сейчас много говорится о приостановке кредитования по мере затухания кризиса, действительность заключается в том, что коэффициент задолженности частного сектора стабилизировался на очень высоких уровнях.

Напротив, как следствие налогово-бюджетного стимулирования и национализации части убытков частного сектора, сейчас наблюдается массивное возобновление кредитования госсектора. Дефицит более 10% ВВП наблюдается во многих развитых странах. Также, ожидается, что соотношение долгов к ВВП резко повысится – в некоторых случаях увеличится вдвое в течение нескольких ближайших лет.

Как показывает новая книга Кармен Райнхарт и Кеннета Рогоффа « В этот раз по-другому» , подобные балансные кризисы исторически приводили к экономическому восстановлению, которое является медленным, обескровленным и долгие годы идёт ниже привычного уровня. Государственные долги являются ещё одной хорошей возможностью, учитывая массивное возобновление кредитования госсектора.

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