Paul Lachine

Die Gefahr der Staatsverschuldung

LONDON – Die Große Rezession der Jahre 2008-2009 wurde aufgrund einer in vielen Ökonomien exzessiven Anhäufung von Schulden und Fremdkapital durch private Haushalte, Finanzinstitutionen und   Unternehmen ausgelöst. Obwohl angesichts einer abflauenden Krise auch viel über Schuldenabbau gesprochen wird, sieht es in der Realität so aus, dass sich der Verschuldungsgrad im privaten Sektor auf sehr hohem Niveau stabilisiert hat.  

Im Gegensatz dazu findet im öffentlichen Sektor infolge der Konjunkturbelebungsprogramme und der Sozialisierung privater Verluste momentan eine massive Erhöhung der Verschuldung statt. Zahlreiche Industrieländer weisen Haushaltsdefizite von über 10 Prozent des BIP auf und man rechnet mit einem drastischen Anstieg der Schuldenquote – in manchen Fällen mit einer Verdoppelung in den nächsten Jahren.

Wie Carmen Reinhart und Ken Rogoff in ihrem neuen Buch Dieses Mal ist alles anders zeigen, führten derartige Bilanzkrisen in der Geschichte zu Erholungsphasen, die über viele Jahre langsam, anämisch und unter Trend verliefen. Probleme mit der Staatsverschuldung sind angesichts der massiven Neuverschuldung im öffentlichen Sektor eine weitere sehr wahrscheinliche Entwicklung.

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