Paul Lachine

发达经济体走钢丝

伦敦 ——2008~2009 年经济大衰退的导火索是许多发达经济体的过度负债,以及家庭部门、金融机构乃至企业部门的高杠杆。尽管随着危机趋于缓和,经常可以听到去杠杆化的说法,但实际上,发达经济体私人部门的负债率仍然居高不下。

不仅如此,由于政府出台了大规模财政刺激政策以及部分私人亏损被全民分摊,目前出现了大规模的公共部门重建高杠杆的现象。财政赤字超过 GDP 10% ,在许多发达经济体成了司空见惯的事情,今后几年,发达经济体的债务 —GDP 比率肯定会大幅走高,有的甚至会翻一番。

正如莱因哈特与罗格夫的新书《这回不一样: 800 年来的金融愚行》所证明的,在历史上,像这种资产负债表式危机,之后的经济复苏都是缓慢、无力的,其影响会持续好几年。另一种非常容易出现的情形则是主权债务问题,尤其是在公共部门大规模重建杠杆的条件下。

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