Normas para una política monetaria heterodoxa

PARÍS – La introducción generalizada de medidas de política monetaria heterodoxas por los bancos centrales más importantes ha sido una característica definitoria de la crisis financiera mundial. Hemos visto un mayor apoyo al crédito, relajación crediticia, relajación cuantitativa, intervenciones en los mercados de divisas y de valores y facilitación de liquidez en divisas, por citar sólo algunas de las medidas adoptadas.

Algunos consideran dichas medidas una continuación de la política ortodoxa por otros medios. Una vez que no se pueden reducir más los tipos de interés nominales, los bancos centrales recurren a otros instrumentos para determinar la política monetaria. Han llegado al final de la carretera, por lo que recurren a la tracción en las cuatro ruedas: amplían sus balances e inyectan liquidez para influir en la estructura de los rendimientos y con ello estimular la demanda agregada, pero, cuando los bancos centrales vuelven a la carretera –es decir, abandonan las medidas heterodoxas–, deben recorrer el camino de vuelta, primero deshaciendo la política heterodoxa y sólo después aumentando los tipos de interés.

Permítaseme proponer una opinión diferente: la de que se deben fijar los tipos de interés decisivos en niveles considerados apropiados para mantener la estabilidad de los precios, partiendo de la evaluación periódica y exhaustiva de las condiciones económicas y monetarias. Conforme al uso ortodoxo, los tipos de interés pueden ser más o menos positivos, muy cercanos a cero o cero.

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