Convenções para uma Política Monetária Não-Convencional

PARIS – A introdução generalizada de medidas não-convencionais de política monetária por parte dos principais bancos centrais tem sido uma característica definidora da crise financeira global. Assistimos a um maior apoio ao crédito, à flexibilização do crédito, à flexibilização quantitativa, a intervenções cambiais e no mercado de valores mobiliários, e ao fornecimento de liquidez em moeda estrangeira – para nomear apenas algumas das medidas tomadas.

Alguns encaram estas medidas como uma continuação, por outros meios, da política convencional. Uma vez que as taxas de juro nominais não podem baixar mais, os bancos centrais usam outras ferramentas para determinar a orientação da política monetária. Chegaram ao fim da estrada, e por isso mudam para a tracção às quatro rodas: expandem os seus balanços patrimoniais e injectam liquidez para influenciar a estrutura das margens e rendimentos, e assim estimular a procura agregada. Mas quando os bancos centrais voltam à estrada – isto é, quando abandonam as medidas não-convencionais – têm que retomar o seu caminho, invertendo primeiro a política não convencional, e só depois subindo as taxas de juro.

Deixem-me sugerir uma abordagem diferente. Digamos que as taxas de juro directoras devam ser definidas a níveis considerados apropriados para manter a estabilidade dos preços, partindo de uma avaliação regular e abrangente das condições económicas e monetárias. Seguindo a prática convencional, as taxas de juro podem ser mais ou menos significativamente positivas, muito próximas de zero, ou iguais a zero.

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