Quelles normes pour une politique monétaire non orthodoxe ?

PARIS – La crise financière mondiale est marquée notamment par le recours généralisé à une politique monétaire non-orthodoxe par les principales banques centrales. Elles ont entre autre soutenu le crédit, intensifié leur politique de relâchement monétaire ainsi que leur intervention sur le marché des changes et sur les marchés boursiers, et accru les provisions en devises étrangères.

On peut considérer qu'il s'agit de la continuation d'une politique orthodoxe par d'autres moyens. Quand elles arrivent au point où elles ne peuvent plus diminuer les taux d'intérêt nominaux, les banques centrales utilisent d'autres outils pour déterminer leur politique monétaire. Elles ont recours aux grands moyens : elles accroissent leur bilan et injectent des liquidités pour influer sur la structure des rendements et des bénéfices et stimuler ainsi la demande agrégée. Mais pour revenir  à un politique orthodoxe, elles doivent faire machine arrière avant d'augmenter les taux d'intérêt.

J'aimerais proposer une autre approche. Supposons que l'on veuille fixer les principaux taux d'intérêt à des niveaux appropriés en s'appuyant sur une évaluation d'ensemble à intervalles réguliers de la situation économique et monétaire. Dans le cadre d'une politique orthodoxe, les taux d'intérêt sont fixés à une plus ou moins grande valeur positive, dans certains cas proches de zéro, voire nulle.

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