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Ливия: что поставлено на карту?

Feb 21, 2020 Bernard Haykel

ПРИНСТОН. Продолжающаяся война в Ливии – это микрокосм трагедии, охватившей многие страны Ближнего Востока. Если проблема не будет решена в ближайшее время, боевые действия в Ливии могут посеять нестабильность в соседних странах, таких как Тунис и Египет, и вызвать новые волны беженцев в Европу.

По сути, ливийский кризис – это гражданская война между группами, различающимися по племенной и региональной принадлежности, а также по идеологическим убеждениям. Все они борются за контроль над доходами страны от добычи нефти. Тем не менее, на данный момент в конфликте есть две основных стороны: международно признанное правительство национального согласия (ПНС), в котором преобладают исламисты и которое все еще контролирует столицу страны, Триполи; а также базирующиеся в Тобруке Палата представителей и Ливийская национальная армия (ЛНА), которые находятся под командованием антиисламистского фельдмаршала Халифы Хафтара. Хотя большая часть страны в настоящее время пребывает под контролем авторитарного националиста Хафтара, Триполи пока не пал.

За каждой из этих сторон стоят внешние силы, преследующие собственные интересы. В то время как Турция и Катар поддерживают ПНС, Египет, Россия и Объединенные Арабские Эмираты оказывают поддержку Хафтару. Международные СМИ, освещающие эту войну, объясняют это вмешательство извне конкуренцией – главным образом между Турцией и Египтом – за нефтегазовые ресурсы.

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j. von Hettlingen Feb 23, 2020

Bernard Haykel explains how the battle for Libya has become a proxy war that involves a number of regional and global players, vying for influence and control of energy resources. Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled with an iron fist for four decades, the country had descended into turmoil, perpetuated by myriad armed militia groups, dividing Libya along tribal and regional lines, as well as ideological beliefs. Some of them are militant or moderate Islamists, others are secessionists or monarchists, while others are liberals – united in their hatred for Gaddafi, but nothing more.
In 2014 a civil war broke out between the two centres of political power in the east and west with parallel institutions – the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli, and the House of Representatives and the Libyan National Army (LNA), under the command of the anti-Islamist General Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya. Last April, Haftar and his forces sought to seize Tripoli and topple the UN-backed GNA led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, in an effort to gain control over the entire country.
The author says “behind each of these warring camps are outside powers pursuing their own interests.” Turkey and Qatar have backed the the Islamist GNA, because they harbour the ambition “to extend their influence into a major oil-producing state on the Mediterranean.” Moreover this would also “offer them strategic depth, strengthening their influence over other countries such as Tunisia and Egypt (a longtime rival).”
Both the Qatari and Turkish leaders have joined forces in supporting the Muslim Brotherhooid, whose ideology is being seen as a threat to the establishment in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. They backed the Islamist government under Mohamed Morsi in Egypt, until it was toppled by the military under Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in 2013 – at the Saudi behest – who later succeeded Morsi.
In Libya, Qatar supports the religious activist and scholar Ali Muhammad al-Salabi, who has emerged as the GNA’s de facto leader. “But late last year, the GNA appeared to be on the verge of defeat, leading to Turkey’s intervention on its behalf. Turkey has since committed weapons, drones, soldiers, and even Syrian fighters to the battle for Tripoli.”
Meanwhile, Egypt, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates have been lending support to Haftar. The UAE and Egypt initially had misgivings about an offensive they predicted would turn into a quagmire. They have supported Haftar, seeing him as a reliable strongman who could end Libya’s chaos, and they do not want to see Libya’s oil fall into the hands of Islamists “who are beholden to their regional rivals. A victory for the GNA would turn Libya into an Islamist stronghold and a beachhead for undermining Egyp.”
The author says Russia’s motive for backing Haftar is “more intriguing, but can be summed up in one word: revanchism.” Putin may have sent 1,000 mercenaries linked to the paramilitary Wagner Group, owned by his buddy, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to fight along the LNA in Libya, “Haftar himself is not the Kremlin’s top candidate to rule Libya. Putin wants to install Saif al-Islam Qaddafi,” the son of the late Libyan dictator, Muammar el-Qaddafi.
“By making Qaddafi Libya’s next ruler, the Kremlin hopes to prove a point to the Americans and Europeans who helped to topple his father.” Buoyed by his “success” in keeping Bashar al-Assad in power “despite overwhelming odds, Putin wants to show that it is he who will dictate Libya’s future and call the shots in the region. If the clock really is set back to Moscow time, it will be interesting to see what happens to Haftar.” Putin backs Haftar despite his misgivings about a figure who had connections with the CIA during a 20-year stay in the US.
Turkey under Erdogan has enjoyed good relations with Sarraj, securing from his government long-sought recognition for Turkish claims to a disputed gas-rich patch of the Mediterranean, competing with Cairo. The Egyptians “have a gas project that could potentially link up with facilities in Israel, Cyprus, and Greece to supply Europe. But that objective directly conflicts with Turkey’s goal of creating an exclusive maritime zone with Libya, and of securing sole control over Libya’s energy resources.”
Haftar’s regional allies – Egypt, the UAE want him to gain control over the whole Libya, hoping that “its oil resources could then be leveraged in the broader fight against the Islamist bogeyman across the region.” Unfortunately this multi-layered proxy war will not end any time soon. The longer it rages, the spillover effects will have devastating consequences for the entire region, with Tunisia, Algeria, Sudan, or Lebanon becoming "the next theater for regional and international powers to fight proxy wars." This will take a toll on civilians in the war-torn countries, triggering a mass influx of refugees to Europe.
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Paul Daley Feb 22, 2020

Well, if Egypt backed by the UAE couldn't win a war on its borders then it's hardly likely that an expanded coalition that includes the young Qaddafi and Putin's mercenaries has any chance. Israel's noxious reputation in the region has left it on the sidelines and Egypt has probably already done all it can do. When everything is said and done, Libya, backed by the UN, may actually get to keep its oil. Wouldn't that be a surprise?
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