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利比亚处在什么危险当中？

Feb 21, 2020 Bernard Haykel

普林斯顿–正在进行的利比亚战争是困扰许多中东国家的悲剧的缩影。如果不尽快结束这场战争，利比亚境内的战事可能会在突尼斯和埃及等邻国造成动荡，并促使更多难民涌向欧洲。

从根本上讲，利比亚危机是按部族、地区忠诚度以及意识形态信仰来划分的各群体之间的内战。所有这些族群都在争相控制该国的石油收入。然而，目前而言，冲突主要在两方之间发生：一方以伊斯兰主义者为首，并为国际所公认的民族和解政府（GNA），该政府仍控制首都的黎波里；另一方是位于托布鲁克（Tobruk）的众议院和利比亚国民军（LNA），由反伊斯兰主义陆军元帅哈利法·哈夫塔尔（Khalifa Haftar）指挥。尽管该国大部分地区现在处于独裁民族主义者哈夫塔尔的控制之下，但的黎波里仍未被其攻占。

在每个交战方的背后，都有追求自己利益的外部势力的身影。尽管土耳其和卡塔尔支持了GNA，但埃及、俄罗斯和阿拉伯联合酋长国一直在向哈夫塔尔提供支持。国际媒体对战争的报道将这种外部干预归因于油气资源竞争，主要是在土耳其和埃及之间。

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j. von Hettlingen Feb 23, 2020

Bernard Haykel explains how the battle for Libya has become a proxy war that involves a number of regional and global players, vying for influence and control of energy resources. Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled with an iron fist for four decades, the country had descended into turmoil, perpetuated by myriad armed militia groups, dividing Libya along tribal and regional lines, as well as ideological beliefs. Some of them are militant or moderate Islamists, others are secessionists or monarchists, while others are liberals – united in their hatred for Gaddafi, but nothing more.
In 2014 a civil war broke out between the two centres of political power in the east and west with parallel institutions – the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) based in Tripoli, and the House of Representatives and the Libyan National Army (LNA), under the command of the anti-Islamist General Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya. Last April, Haftar and his forces sought to seize Tripoli and topple the UN-backed GNA led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, in an effort to gain control over the entire country.
The author says “behind each of these warring camps are outside powers pursuing their own interests.” Turkey and Qatar have backed the the Islamist GNA, because they harbour the ambition “to extend their influence into a major oil-producing state on the Mediterranean.” Moreover this would also “offer them strategic depth, strengthening their influence over other countries such as Tunisia and Egypt (a longtime rival).”
Both the Qatari and Turkish leaders have joined forces in supporting the Muslim Brotherhooid, whose ideology is being seen as a threat to the establishment in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. They backed the Islamist government under Mohamed Morsi in Egypt, until it was toppled by the military under Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in 2013 – at the Saudi behest – who later succeeded Morsi.
In Libya, Qatar supports the religious activist and scholar Ali Muhammad al-Salabi, who has emerged as the GNA’s de facto leader. “But late last year, the GNA appeared to be on the verge of defeat, leading to Turkey’s intervention on its behalf. Turkey has since committed weapons, drones, soldiers, and even Syrian fighters to the battle for Tripoli.”
Meanwhile, Egypt, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates have been lending support to Haftar. The UAE and Egypt initially had misgivings about an offensive they predicted would turn into a quagmire. They have supported Haftar, seeing him as a reliable strongman who could end Libya’s chaos, and they do not want to see Libya’s oil fall into the hands of Islamists “who are beholden to their regional rivals. A victory for the GNA would turn Libya into an Islamist stronghold and a beachhead for undermining Egyp.”
The author says Russia’s motive for backing Haftar is “more intriguing, but can be summed up in one word: revanchism.” Putin may have sent 1,000 mercenaries linked to the paramilitary Wagner Group, owned by his buddy, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to fight along the LNA in Libya, “Haftar himself is not the Kremlin’s top candidate to rule Libya. Putin wants to install Saif al-Islam Qaddafi,” the son of the late Libyan dictator, Muammar el-Qaddafi.
“By making Qaddafi Libya’s next ruler, the Kremlin hopes to prove a point to the Americans and Europeans who helped to topple his father.” Buoyed by his “success” in keeping Bashar al-Assad in power “despite overwhelming odds, Putin wants to show that it is he who will dictate Libya’s future and call the shots in the region. If the clock really is set back to Moscow time, it will be interesting to see what happens to Haftar.” Putin backs Haftar despite his misgivings about a figure who had connections with the CIA during a 20-year stay in the US.
Turkey under Erdogan has enjoyed good relations with Sarraj, securing from his government long-sought recognition for Turkish claims to a disputed gas-rich patch of the Mediterranean, competing with Cairo. The Egyptians “have a gas project that could potentially link up with facilities in Israel, Cyprus, and Greece to supply Europe. But that objective directly conflicts with Turkey’s goal of creating an exclusive maritime zone with Libya, and of securing sole control over Libya’s energy resources.”
Haftar’s regional allies – Egypt, the UAE want him to gain control over the whole Libya, hoping that “its oil resources could then be leveraged in the broader fight against the Islamist bogeyman across the region.” Unfortunately this multi-layered proxy war will not end any time soon. The longer it rages, the spillover effects will have devastating consequences for the entire region, with Tunisia, Algeria, Sudan, or Lebanon becoming "the next theater for regional and international powers to fight proxy wars." This will take a toll on civilians in the war-torn countries, triggering a mass influx of refugees to Europe.
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Paul Daley Feb 22, 2020

Well, if Egypt backed by the UAE couldn't win a war on its borders then it's hardly likely that an expanded coalition that includes the young Qaddafi and Putin's mercenaries has any chance. Israel's noxious reputation in the region has left it on the sidelines and Egypt has probably already done all it can do. When everything is said and done, Libya, backed by the UN, may actually get to keep its oil. Wouldn't that be a surprise?
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